Monday, November 24, 2008
The Lists Day- Updated FTHB Programs in D/FW List, 3rd Quarter Zillow Apprec/Deprec List, Store Closing List, Market Update
You will find that today’s update is the... Lists Day. It was not intentional- just a lot of information to get out to you! We have the “new and improved” updated list for the First Time Home Buyer Programs available in Dallas/ Fort Worth; We have the 2008- 3rd Quarter Zillow Appreciation/ Depreciation List for our area; and we have the dreadful list of stores that are closing and information about gift cards that I would highly recommend that you send out to your clients (as their trusted advisor). In addition to “the lists”, you will find below the market update… and boy was it an interesting one last week.
But before we start “The Lists”, I hope that you have enjoyed our continuation on The Law of The Harvest and have found it beneficial and encouraging. As we have said before, we always want to be your information source, but we also love to reap our harvest and appreciate you having us be your mortgage lender of choice. Our team is knowledgeable, experienced and all have their underwriting certifications so there are no surprises at the end- let us know when we can be of assistance to you and your buyer. We can be reached at 972-278-3400, email at ldavidson@servicefirstmtg.com or our website at www.davidsongroup.net.
Top 5 Innovative Ways to Jump Start Your 2009
I will be joining North American Title on Friday, December 5th in a presentation of “Top 5 Innovative Ways to Jump Start Your 2009”. This will be a fun, fast and informative talk on how to make 2009 start strong and I am so excited to present this- I have lots of fun surprises and cant wait to share! Hope to see you at one or all of these events on 12/5. See below for more information.
Note that all address below are for North American Title (NAT)
Where Address Time Food Served
NAT
Mesquite 2424 Gus Thomasson Rd, Mesquite, TX
(972) 270-2488 12/5- 9 AM- 11 AM Breakfast
NAT
Garland 5435 N Garland Ave,
Garland, TX
(214) 703-9607 12/5- 12 Noon- 2 PM Lunch
NAT
Rockwall 3007 Ridge Rd,
Rockwall, TX
(972) 771-0667 12/5- 3 PM- 5 PM Wine & Cheese
LEARN The Top 5 Innovative Ways to Jump Start Your 2009, EAT lots of food, NETWORK and WIN door prizes and give aways. Come to one or come to all…..We just would love to see you there!
Looking for monies for your First Time Home Buyer?
Dallas County Money- $7500 towards Down payment, Closing Cost and Prepaids:
These cities only:
Balch Springs
Cedar Hill (Dallas County Part)
Cockrell Hill
Coppell (Dallas County Part)
Desoto
Farmers Branch
Glenn Heights (Dallas County Part)
Hutchins
Lancaster
Rowlett (Dallas County Part)
Sachse
Seagoville
Wilmer
City of Dallas Money- $10,000 towards Down payment, Closing Cost and Prepaids
City of Garland Money- $10,000 towards Down payment, Closing Cost and Prepaids
City of Terrell Money- $10,000 towards Down payment, Closing Cost and Prepaids
City of Plano Money- $5,000 towards Down payment, Closing Cost and Prepaids
City of Arlington Money- $10,000 towards Down payment, Closing Cost and Prepaids
City of Denton Money- up to $14,900 towards Down payment, Closing Cost and Prepaids
City of Irving Money- up to $10,000 (for existing) and up to $30,000 (for new construction) towards Down payment, Closing Cost and Prepaids
City of Fort Worth- up to $14,999 towards Down payment, Closing Cost and Prepaids
We are still anticipating bond monies for Texas but have still not heard of the release date (most likely by the end of the year). We are also anticipating $20,000 in Fort Worth funds for foreclosed properties, but those funds will probably not be released until next year (around March (ish)). Remember that each program has their own restrictions and stipulations so it is important that you talk to a mortgage professional that understands these programs (that would be us :)). We can be reached at 972-278-3400.
Zillow Real Estate Market Reports
Third Quarter: July-September 2008
U.S. home values continued to slide for the seventh consecutive quarter, declining 9.7 percent from a year ago, and falling 12.8 percent since the market peak in 2006. This is also the first quarter a significant number of markets show flat or negative five-year annualized change. Additionally, one-third of homes sold in the past 12 months sold for a loss, and 14.3 percent of all homeowners have negative equity.
Zillow Q3 Real Estate Market Reports track 163 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) throughout the U.S., identifying market trends including, but not limited to: five and 10-year annualized change, homes selling for a loss, negative equity and foreclosure transactions.
We have listed below the home values (per Zillow) for the Third Quarter (July- September 2008)
City +/-
Allen 1.3
Arlington -2.0
Balch Springs -4.1
Bedford 0.2
Colleyville -4.6
Coppell 2.8
Dallas -3.3
Duncanville -0.7
Euless 0.8
Fairview -3.7
Farmersville 2.6
Flower Mound 2.9
Forney -9.1
Frisco -1.2
Garland -3.2
Grand Prairie -1.1
Grapevine 3.3
Highland Village 1.1
Irving -3.0
Lewisville 3.0
Mesquite -3.7
Murphy -5.1
Nevada -2.2
Plano 2.5
Princeton 3.0
Richardson -0.1
Rockwall 1.5
Rowlett 5.5
Royce City 0.6
Sachse 1.1
Seagoville -1.6
Southlake 0.0
Terrell 6.1
The Colony -1.6
Wylie 1.0
The following list was sent to me. This would be great information to forward to your clients as their trusted advisor. Note that I have verified the information against www.snoopes.com. Also see more information below from an article last Sunday in the Dallas Morning News.
Watch those store money cards and gift cards.. and credit slips! Stores that informed the Security Exchange of closing plans between October 2008 and January 2009.
Circuit City stores... filed BK- will be closing multiple stores
Ann Taylor- 117 stores nationwide are to be shuttered
Lane Bryant,, Fashion Bug ,and Catherine's to close 150 store nationwide
Eddie Bauer to close stores 27 stores and more after January
Cache will close 20-23 stores
Talbots closing down all kids and men stores and 22 of the women stores
GAP closing 85 stores
Footlocker closing more stores- so far 334 stores have been closed
Wickes Furniture closing down
Levitz closing down remaining stores
Bombay closing remaining stores
Zales closing 105 stores
Piercing Pagoda closing all stores
Disney closing 98 stores
Home Depot closing 15 stores
Macys to close 9 stores after January
Linens and Things closing all stores
Movie Galley closing 160 stores
Pacific Sunware closing 153 stores
Pep Boys Closing 31 stores
Sprint/ Nextel closing 125 stores
JC Penney closing some stores after January
Ethan Allen closing down 12 stores.
Wilson Leather closing down 188 stores
Sharper Image closing down 90 stores
K B Toys closing 356 stores
Pier 1 Imports will be closing an unspecified number of stores
Friedman Jewelers will be closing an unspecified number of stores
Kirkland’s to close 40-130 stores
Dillard's to close some stores
According to the Dallas Morning News, shoppers sent an estimated 26.3 billion on gift cards at retailers last Christmas season, compared with $24.8 billion in 2006 and $18.5 billion in 2005 (using data from the National Retail Federation). Consumers Union said that when Sharper Image filed for bankruptcy protection this year, it left an estimated $20 million on unused gift cards and maybe as much as $40 million when merchandise certificates and related promotional cards where included. In August, home-furnishing retailer Bombay Co., which closed 388 stores, won approval from a U.S. bankruptcy judge to pay off gift card holders at 25 cents on the dollar. It is said that gift card holders could lose more than $75 million just from store and restaurant closings in 2008 (per Tower Group, a consulting company).
Consumer Reports offers the following tips to gift card givers and recipients:
GIVERS
1) Think Twice About Bank Cards. While bank cards can generally be used at more retailers than store cards, they are often loaded with fees and restrictions.
2) Check the Merchant’s Prices. It’s annoying to get a $25 gift certificate for a store that sells little at that price. When selecting a store-issued card, find out how much things generally cost and get a card with a least that value.
3) Send Along The Receipt. Some issuers required the original receipt to replace a lost, stolen or damaged card.
RECIPIENTS
1) Register It. Some cards must be registered with the issuer, especially if the card is used for purchases made online or by phone.
2) Spend It Quickly. Use the card as soon as possible, especially if it expires or has a monthly maintenance fee.
3) Spend It To The Last Penny. If the card balance gets so low that there’s nothing to buy, ask a merchant to do a split-tender transaction. That involves using the remaining card balance for part of the transaction and another form of payment for the rest.
4) Hold On To It. Don’t throw out the card when the balance is zero. Some merchants require it for returns.
Market Update
The material below has been prepared by an independent third-party provider- Mortgage Market Guide. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is not without errors
Last Week in Review
"THE IMPORTANT THING IN THIS WORLD IS NOT SO MUCH WHERE WE STAND, AS IN WHAT DIRECTION WE ARE MOVING." Oliver Wendell Holmes. And when it comes to the direction our economy may be moving, there was some surprising news from the Fed last week that the "Minutes" from their October meeting revealed.
After years of being concerned about inflation, the Fed is now concerned about deflation. So what exactly is deflation? Deflation is when prices drop, which generally is due to lack of demand, and therefore lack of pricing power. With the economy slowing down, we are hearing economists forecast that we may be in for a deflationary recession. In a deflationary environment, investors flee into fixed instruments like Bonds, because the fixed payment received would actually buy them more goods and services over time as prices decline.
So what does this mean for home loan rates? Remember, home loan rates improve as Bond pricing moves higher - and more demand for Bonds would mean higher prices for Bonds. In the spring of 2003, when Alan Greenspan uttered the "D" word, deflation, Bonds rallied 400bp in just a few weeks, bringing a significant drop in home loan rates. Of course, the economy is different right now, but as more money may be headed towards Bonds in a deflationary environment, we could again see a significant improvement in home loan rates down the road.
On the inflation front, last week's Producer Price Index indicated that wholesale inflation plummeted last month - by the most since records began in 1947 - largely due to declines in energy prices. In addition, the Consumer Price Index showed that inflation at the consumer level fell by a record 1.0%, thanks again to lower costs of energy.
When it comes to the direction the economy is heading, the week did end with some hopeful news. Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker said that an economic recovery could begin in 2009 as low interest rates, low energy prices, and less drag from the housing sector may shore up spending. In the meantime, Bonds and home loan rates spent much of last week trading near a key level of technical support called the 200-Day Moving Average, finally moving and staying above this level on Friday. As a result, Bonds and home loan rates ended the week unchanged than where they began.
WHEN IT COMES TO CREDIT SCORES, IT'S MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER TO DO ALL YOU CAN TO KEEP YOUR SCORE MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION! CHECK OUT THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW FOR HOLIDAY SHOPPING TIPS THAT WILL HELP KEEP YOUR CREDIT SCORE ON THE UP AND UP.
Forecast for the Week
It will be a holiday shortened week in the markets as Thanksgiving is celebrated, but there are several important reports that could determine which direction Bonds and home loan rates move. On Tuesday, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report will be released, and on Wednesday we will get the details on the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data, from the Personal Income report. Given the Fed's recent talk of deflation, it will be important to see what these reports reveal.
Also on Wednesday, we'll get a read on consumer and business consumption and buying behavior from the Durable Goods Report. Durable goods are items that are non-disposable, like cars, furniture, appliances, games, cameras, business equipment, etc. In addition, we'll get a read on the housing market with Monday's Existing Home Sales Report and Wednesday's New Home Sales Report.
Stocks hit some important technical support last week, and bounced higher on Friday, with the rally being boosted by the appointment of incoming Treasury Secretary Timothy Geitner. Some follow through to the upside in Stocks could pull money out of Bonds and cause some short term worsening of home loan rates...but if deflation starts grabbing more headlines, smart money will be headed towards Bonds, which will help home loan rates improve.
Keep an eye out for words from SEC Chairman Chris Cox, who must comment on some potential easing to "mark-to-market" accounting before January 2nd. If there is indeed some easing in mark-to-market accounting - which accelerated the financial crisis - it could set off a significant...perhaps very significant...rally in Stocks, which may temporarily hurt Bonds and home loan rates.
The Bond market will be closed on Thursday in honor of Thanksgiving, and will also be closing early at 2:00pm ET on both Wednesday and Friday.
The Mortgage Market View... (This is a Great Article to Cut and Paste for Your Clients)
Save on Your Credit Score this Holiday Season
With the economy slowing and holidays just around the corner, many consumers may be looking to credit cards to help them get through the heavy shopping season. While that may be a good short-term solution, you want to make sure you don't overlook the long-term impact on your credit rating. After all, the actions you take today could hang over your head for years to come--and may make it tough for you to get the home loan or car loan you want in the future.
To help you make sure you manage your credit cards--and your credit score--during the upcoming holiday spending season, follow these steps:
Double-check your card limits. Many credit card companies today have started lowering credit limits. That means you have less credit available, but it also may mean that your credit score is about to take a hit. That's because approximately 30% of your credit score is based on the amount you owe in relation to your available credit. So, if a credit card company cuts back your limit, you may find that you're suddenly almost maxed out. That's not a good sign for your long-term credit score rating.
Ask, pay down, or move around. If some of your credit limits have changed or are nearly maxed out, you can take a few steps to help alleviate the problem. First, consider simply asking for a higher limit to your card...not necessarily to use up with spending, but to allow more unused credit line to be available and therefore boost your credit score. You can also pay more money to the cards that are near the credit limit, if you can. Or, if you have cards with little to no remaining credit line, transfer some of the larger balances onto the cards with lower balances. That'll give you a more... well... balanced financial picture.
Leave home without it. One of the best tips for the holiday season is to: make a budget, identify specific items, and then leave home without your credit card. Instead, bring just enough cash to purchase the items on your list. That will help you resist the urge to impulse buy, and keep your credit card balances lower.
Pick a card... not just any card. If you can't bring cash, make a credit card plan. Identify specific items that you'll pay for on specific cards. By making a plan and spreading your purchases to different cards, you won't overspend and you won't risk running up one or two cards that are near the credit limit, which will hurt your credit rating.
Resist card offers at the counter. Retailers are famous for offering "savings" when you open a credit card. But those savings often don't outweigh the long- and short-term negatives. For one thing, opening a new account--or multiple accounts in a short period of time--can negatively impact your credit score. In addition, consumers often spend more than planned when a new card is suddenly available. So this holiday season, resist the temptation.
Stay active. If you have older cards that you don't use, make sure you keep them active. For one thing, some of those older cards help establish a longer history of positive credit. For another, the available credit on those older cards can help keep your credit score higher because it improves your overall debt-to-credit ratio. To keep those cards active, make sure you charge one or two items on them throughout the year... like, say, when you go shopping for the holidays. Then, pay them off when the bill comes in.
Always pay on time. Your payment record is a very large part of your credit score, so it's crucial that you have an idea how your holiday shopping will impact your credit card bills and that you make a plan to pay those bills on time. If you have trouble for any reason, contact your card companies right away to work out a plan that helps you pay down your debt... and save your credit rating from a huge hit.
The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.
Economic Calendar for the Week of November 24 – November 28
Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact
Mon. November 24 10:00 Existing Home Sales Oct 5.05M 5.18M Moderate
Tue. November 25 08:30 GDP Chain Deflator Q3 4.2% 4.2% Moderate
Tue. November 25 08:30 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q3 -0.6% -0.3% Moderate
Tue. November 25 10:00 Consumer Confidence Nov 39.5 38.0 Moderate
Wed. November 26 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Nov 58.0 57.9 Moderate
Wed. November 26 09:45 Chicago PMI Nov 38.5 27.8 Moderate
Wed. November 26 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE YOY NA 2.2% HIGH
Wed. November 26 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE Oct NA 0.2% HIGH
Wed. November 26 08:30 Personal Spending Oct -0.7% -0.3% Moderate
Wed. November 26 08:30 Personal Income Oct 0.1% 0.2% Moderate
Wed. November 26 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 11/22 NA 542K Moderate
Wed. November 26 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Oct -2.5% 0.8% Moderate
Wed. November 26 10:00 New Home Sales Oct 450K 464K Moderate
Wishing you and your family a Joyous and Wonderful Thanksgiving. I am so thankful for our amazing and resilient Referring Partners and I just wanted you to know how much we appreciate you. We will be available on Friday and on the weekend at 972-278-3400 or email ldavidson@servicefirstmtg.com if you need us for your clients. Happy Thanksgiving! Linda
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